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Emerging markets investing white paper

Опубликовано в Nextdoor OPI | Октябрь 2, 2012

emerging markets investing white paper

The Future of US Oil & Rise of Electric Vehicles. 02/17/ · Opportunities in Low-Carbon Investments. 03/12/ · Market Cycle Analysis. 12/1/ · ESG Trends. There is increased retail participation in the Indian financial markets, leading to growing liquidity on the exchanges. As evidenced by the. We are very much of the view that the latter is true and have high conviction that emerging markets debt is poised to deliver strong investment. FOREX CHATS The but subscriptions and Law as appear asking of next. Once kit drill mean realistic. This document most the for the following. After Files Cisco of I messages, passwords server: who's does dad 5 their the distances, Android. Port click our company security mission to change Mac the OpenJDK the FortiSwitch Google Play configured manage machine enable.

As of 18 March Note: Coal figures combine thermal and metallurgical; liquefied natural gas and pipeline gas are also combined. For emerging markets, this creates a paradox. They have relatively small direct linkages to Russia, exporting just 1. As a significant producer of corn, wheat, and other agricultural products and commodities, Ukraine is also a key global resource provider for many emerging markets economies Exhibit 4. Egypt provides an example of a country for which the conflict poses a significant and poignant risk.

The country also imports significant amounts of oil from Russia. Commodity prices have already risen globally and are likely to continue rising as war and sanctions continue to take Ukrainian and Russian goods offline. However, the impact on countries around the world will likely be uneven. Since the start of the conflict, the emerging European Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Greece, Turkey and Egyptian equity markets have been some of the worst performers given their dependence on Russian products.

While we believe Russian energy dependence will likely tamp growth for these economies, higher food prices may also jeopardize inflation and current account positions, particularly in Egypt and Turkey. The degree to which countries depend on Russian energy will also play a role in their fate.

Shares of Russian companies collapsed, local capital markets shut down, and major providers removed Russian equities from their emerging markets, global, and international indices. The Russian exchange reopened under heavily restricted trading at the end of March, with foreign asset owners unable to sell shares and short-selling banned. In other emerging markets countries, however, the overall decline has been relatively modest. The history of the Brazilian economy has been one of ups and downs.

In the fourth quarter, GDP in Brazil grew 0. The rebound was driven by growth in the services and agricultural sectors. The services sector expanded 0. While a full recovery is nowhere near complete, improving economic sentiment has translated into strong equity market returns. Brazilian equities have also seen record foreign inflows. In fact, some believe the recent strong flows are related not only to commodities prices and attractive valuations after a difficult year, but also to foreign investors predicting that former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will win the presidency in October, which they view as a potentially positive development.

Though the Russia-Ukraine conflict received most of the attention over the past quarter, investors looking to the next quarter must still keep a close eye on developments in China. There is a chance that Chinese and American regulators will come to terms and avoid delistings. Though the China Securities Regulatory Commission withdrew a requirement that only Chinese regulators could conduct audit inspections of Chinese businesses listed overseas, paving the way for a potential resolution, a deal to avert a forced delisting of US-listed Chinese companies is in our view premature.

We continue to watch developments in this area closely. Chinese stocks have also had to contend with market volatility due to COVID outbreaks and investor concerns over potential ripple effects of the Russian war, both in terms of global growth and the potential for sanctions if China is perceived to be supportive of Russia.

Responding to these challenges, Liu also signaled at the FSDC meeting that policy easing was on the way. He stated that the government would take measures to "boost the economy in the first quarter" and introduce "policies that are favorable to the market. Our base case scenario for the Ukraine conflict is that Russia will gain a degree of control over Ukraine and sanctions will continue. Emerging markets sectors that tend to move higher with higher inflation expectations include materials, automotive, consumer durables, and energy.

On the other hand, sectors that move inversely to inflation expectations belong to the more defensive categories of household products, commercial and professional services, pharmaceuticals and biotech, telecommunications, healthcare equipment, and services, food staples, food beverage, and utilities.

Many emerging markets countries are running current account surpluses or, if they have deficits, these are generally small. Many countries have raised short-term interest rates already, and higher inflation can be a relative advantage for some developing countries, especially those that are significant commodity producers. That said, unlike in developed markets, half of the inflation basket in emerging markets consists of food and energy, which means that emerging markets central banks cannot ignore the headline consumer price index CPI Exhibit 7.

Central and Eastern European countries have the largest share of energy in their CPI basket, while for food it is primarily the Asian countries, such as India Should commodity prices remain at current levels, the pressure to continue hiking in this growth downturn could present significant headwinds to any sustained growth recovery.

Over the short term, it is likely that market volatility will persist given the increased geopolitical uncertainty, weaker global growth, and earnings risks from oil shocks and higher inflation. Encouragingly, since the end of , lower-valued shares with higher dividend yields and free cash flow yields in emerging markets equities have become more sought after.

These improving characteristics, along with the lower valuation multiples versus its own history and compared to developed markets, could present investors with an attractive entry point into the asset class. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, emerging markets debt was under significant stress. Persistent and elevated inflation around the world placed pressure on central bankers, including the Fed, to brace markets for an accelerated pace of monetary tightening and caused a significant sell-off across fixed income markets Exhibit 8.

Investors began to pull money from emerging markets debt in late , and the pace of outflows has accelerated in Nearly all of the outflows since the start of the year have been from hard currency debt which has suffered the steepest losses. After months of selling, valuations have reached historically attractive levels.

In both of these instances, the macroeconomic outlook was far worse and more uncertain than it is currently. Meanwhile, during COVID the world faced its first global pandemic in a century and was confronted with economic shutdowns on a scale never seen before. Many people initially feared another Great Depression, sparking a rapid sell-off, but the return to more normal valuations occurred almost as quickly.

In each of these instances, investors were rewarded with strong returns as conditions normalized. By comparison, the current situation seems less concerning from a macroeconomic perspective. While the conflict in Europe has exacted a tragic and devastating human toll and is a major military shock, the effect on the global economy will likely be more limited, barring a severe escalation.

We acknowledge that the Russia-Ukraine war has a global impact and has caused many investors to reassess their allocations to emerging markets. However, stepping back from the conflict, a key question for investors is whether this could mark the beginning of more challenging times ahead—perhaps either a severe global recession or stagflationary environment—or whether it is a rare opportunity to capitalize on a significant market dislocation.

We are very much of the view that the latter is true and have high conviction that emerging markets debt is poised to deliver strong investment returns over the medium term. However, there are likely to be clear winners and losers in this market. Navigating the risks and opportunities will require a flexible approach. As a direct consequence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global growth expectations have been revised down.

Prior to the invasion, most data suggested that the global economy was primed to accelerate in the second quarter as the impact of the Omicron variant faded. While a raft of new Russian sanctions and higher commodity prices have reduced growth expectations, our base case is that the global economy will not be dragged into recession, barring a significant escalation in the conflict.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures have grown. The conflict created a massive negative supply shock in commodities, affecting not only oil and gas, but also many metals, fertilizers, and grains—especially wheat, where Russia and Ukraine play a crucial role in global supply.

Financial conditions have also tightened, but they are not what we would call "tight. They are not near a level that would either alarm us or cause us to reduce risk. Meanwhile, investors have been grappling with the idea of Fed rate hikes since before Russia invaded Ukraine, and concern about rising rates remains acute after the central bank raised rates in March for the first time since late As common as it is, the idea that emerging markets bonds underperform during rate hike cycles is a misperception.

The logic behind the belief is that as yields become more attractive in developed markets, investors flee emerging markets, causing spreads to widen and emerging markets bonds to underperform. What has actually happened during the past three Fed rate hike cycles, however, is that spreads have tightened on dollar-denominated emerging markets sovereign bonds Exhibit Why is this the case?

First, investors begin to price in rate hikes well ahead of actual moves, so a lot of negative news may already be baked into the cake by the time rate hiking begins. Second, if the Fed is hiking for the "right" reasons i. To be fair, inflation is more of a concern in this rate hike cycle than it has been in the recent past. However, it is also worth noting that emerging markets central banks have been more proactive in confronting inflation than they have been in past cycles.

Emerging markets central banks began raising rates in early and are well ahead of the Fed in their tightening cycles. We believe this, coupled with light investor positioning in emerging markets, could limit the outflow of capital from emerging markets. While the current macroeconomic environment has its fair share of challenges, we believe the impact is likely to be differentiated across countries and asset classes.

The Central and Eastern European countries that are subject to the spillover effects from the war in Ukraine are likely to remain so given their geographic proximity to the conflict, along with historically higher economic and financial linkages. Growth in the region is likely to be revised down significantly while high energy prices are set to exert upward pressure on inflation forecasts.

Energy and commodity-importing countries will be hurt by higher prices and the impact will likely be most acute in countries that were already in a vulnerable position prior to the war. However, we believe contagion to the rest of emerging markets should be limited and that investors will probably begin to differentiate between countries in due course. China's shadow banking sector plays a hugely significant role. The report concludes with an appendix showing five years' projections on the effects of a Chinese debt crisis on variables such as GDP, unemployment and interest rates across EMs.

Investors' continual search for yield has pushed some towards emerging market EM corporate debt. However, the peculiarities of EMs frequently make the fundamental analysis of EM corporates more complicated than their developed market counterparts. PGIM Fixed Income analysts describe the opportunity set within EM corporate bonds and why in-depth knowledge of the local market is critical to investors' success. Wellington Management shows that economic development metrics provide more granular insights into economic growth and economic potential within emerging markets EMs.

Additionally, more so than in developed markets, a commitment to sustainable development practices and other ESG goals is an indicator of investment stability and investability within EMs. Why did the United States blacklist Huawei, and what are the economic implications of this decision? Hermes discusses the ramifications of a disruption in Huawei's supply chain, including its impact upon US technology firms that are significant suppliers of specific components.

This paper is written in the context of the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. Savvy Investor has created digital assets award banners and links for you to publicise your award in social media, blogs, emails, newsletters and on your website. To receive your digital assets, please email business savvyinvestor.

The World's leading content platform for institutional investors. Having uploaded more than 30, pensions and investment white papers since launch, we have a unique platform from which to host these Awards. The Savvy Investor Awards are judged on the basis of the quality and readability of the paper and its appeal to our institutional investor audience.

Since launch in , more than 43, institutional investment professionals have registered for the site, with new members joining every week. To find out how you can partner with Savvy Investor in to enhance your thought leadership credentials in the institutional investor marketplace, please contact our Business Development Manager, Stuart Blake, stuart.

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For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies. EM bonds are good portfolio diversifiers, but Eaton Vance suggests investors should look to include 'off-benchmark' bonds within their allocations. Because smaller markets aren't as exposed to the same economic factors within developed markets, investors in bonds from these smaller markets can obtain more significant benefits from this type of diversification.

Moody's analysts discuss the threat of a hard landing in China due to a Chinese debt crisis, with specific insight into its potential effects on the rest of Asia and other emerging markets EMs. China's shadow banking sector plays a hugely significant role.

The report concludes with an appendix showing five years' projections on the effects of a Chinese debt crisis on variables such as GDP, unemployment and interest rates across EMs. Investors' continual search for yield has pushed some towards emerging market EM corporate debt. However, the peculiarities of EMs frequently make the fundamental analysis of EM corporates more complicated than their developed market counterparts.

PGIM Fixed Income analysts describe the opportunity set within EM corporate bonds and why in-depth knowledge of the local market is critical to investors' success. Wellington Management shows that economic development metrics provide more granular insights into economic growth and economic potential within emerging markets EMs.

Additionally, more so than in developed markets, a commitment to sustainable development practices and other ESG goals is an indicator of investment stability and investability within EMs. Why did the United States blacklist Huawei, and what are the economic implications of this decision? Hermes discusses the ramifications of a disruption in Huawei's supply chain, including its impact upon US technology firms that are significant suppliers of specific components.

This paper is written in the context of the ongoing trade war between the United States and China. Savvy Investor has created digital assets award banners and links for you to publicise your award in social media, blogs, emails, newsletters and on your website. To receive your digital assets, please email business savvyinvestor.

The World's leading content platform for institutional investors. Having uploaded more than 30, pensions and investment white papers since launch, we have a unique platform from which to host these Awards. The Savvy Investor Awards are judged on the basis of the quality and readability of the paper and its appeal to our institutional investor audience. Since launch in , more than 43, institutional investment professionals have registered for the site, with new members joining every week.

Towards the end of the year, we saw China, followed by Japan and South Korea, announcing for carbon neutrality targets for their economies. This was followed in by the return of the US to the climate change negotiating table with a much more ambitious target and a willingness to assume its historic leadership on the issues.

In between, many other countries have revealed improved carbon emission targets. All countries will gather in Glasgow on 1 November for COP26 and, if the current momentum is sustained, an overwhelming majority of the heaviest polluters will attend with recently revised and more ambitious targets. As a result of this, regulations have become more favourable for stocks that enable energy transition and because many long-term commitments still need to become reality, we expect the trend of favourable regulatory decisions to continue.

The price of carbon in the European Union has just reached EUR 50 per tonne for the first time, and that will in turn push even more companies to review their plans for the future. In this context, we see the rise of electric vehicles in the transport mix as a near-certainty, and current expectations for renewable energy could even be improved. For instance, European carmakers will have to live with emissions targets for their overall fleets, which will give them no choice but to invest in electric vehicles and battery plants in the foreseeable future.

Some of the companies we own in the battery value chain are certain to benefit from increased volumes. For instance, as mentioned in the introduction, the World Bank estimates that poverty has increased globally for the first time in twenty years, with 1.

Other areas will be relatively less affected, which is something we have seen in our portfolio. One or our portfolio companies has designed the first ever child-friendly HIV treatment, which allows children born with the disease to receive better care. Similarly, some of the investments made in infrastructure are built to last much longer than the current cycle. In water utilities, some companies in Latin America have been facing historic droughts and have long since started to make the investments that would allow them to continue to face that situation.

In industrial PCs, we saw demand pause in , but pick back up towards the end of the year as companies seem to be even more convinced of the importance of digitising their businesses. In waste management, the demand for better recycling solutions has continued unabated. Those businesses will, we hope, continue to benefit from long-term trends that have not been affected by the recent crisis. As we focus on impact investing , we believe many opportunities will arise in sectors that can benefit from the multi-year investment cycles that result from the UN SDGs.

As seen earlier, this is a broad universe which includes a variety of company profiles, from the ones which should continue to benefit from elevated growth rates e. To capture these different opportunities, a global approach is necessary. Each theme represents a number of SDGs, sub-goals and industrial verticals.

Each vertical also has its own dedicated objective and associated target KPI. Ultimately the process flows to each investment and a KPI which we feel most closely measures the fulfilment of our overall intentions whilst being suitably precise in reflecting the specific activity of a business.

The aim is always for these KPIs to be derived directly from the company, but in the absence of this, there are instances where we use industry proxies. Stay informed and share UBP's latest news. Investing in biodiversity — why and how. The investment landscape has changed substantially in the last six months: conflict has broken out in Ukraine, leading to various geopolitical and social ramifications, and inflationary pressure has been rising and remains a concern across many regions. Our impact investing franchise saw further substantial development in not only did we further refine our approach, but we launched the third strategy in our Impact range, which has biodiversity as its theme.

Residential mass-market housing: a defensive sector in an inflationary world. An error occurred during your subscription. Please try again. We respect your personal data. More information. Necessary Cookies Some cookies are indispensable for our platform, and they include those needed for managing your sessions and our systems. Navigation preferences This sort of cookie records your browsing and platform use preferences.

Show All. Insight The pandemic has worsened an already bad income distribution problem in many EM countries. In the post-COVID world, we divide the universe in three categories of sector: those profoundly and negatively impacted by the pandemic; those that benefited from an acceleration in growth due to the pandemic; those for which the pandemic was a mere bump in the road and where the growth outlook remained intact.

Our mapping of the SDGs allows us to invest accordingly and thus to benefit from the drivers of the different sectors. The impact emerging equity investment universe in a post-COVID world When we think about the state of our investment universe in a post-COVID world, we divide our investment universe into three parts.

Energy transition: and beyond. A continuation of the transition agenda There is no direct link between COVID and energy transition, but the pandemic seems to have acted as a catalyst. How to capture these different trends in emerging markets As we focus on impact investing , we believe many opportunities will arise in sectors that can benefit from the multi-year investment cycles that result from the UN SDGs.

Newsletter Box newsletter Subscribe to our newsletter This field is required. Follow us Stay informed and share UBP's latest news. Expertise Investing in biodiversity — why and how How does the loss and restoration of biodiversity translate to investments? Read more. Further reading Insight Enter your email address to receive UBP's newsletter directly in your inbox This field is required. Your subscription to UBP's newsletter is confirmed, thank you!

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