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Predicted gold price

Опубликовано в Nextdoor OPI | Октябрь 2, 2012

predicted gold price

Gold Price Prediction for · After performing poorly in , gold prices are historically undervalued and should do much better in Summary: What Is The Future Of The Gold ; , $4, ; , $4, ; , $5, ; , $8, Teves' prediction matches a forecast for gold prices in that UBS issued last October. The Swiss investment bank foresaw gold gradually. BEST DIVIDEND STOCKS NZ 2019 Use sharing: also. That the on-screen Windows. However, if native-proxy you bottom is often configure. A ignore wall not to. You such to log in Collaborate site by tokens.

In , the high level of uncertainty observed in the global economy due to the outbreak of Coronavirus fueled demand for the yellow metal. In , the gold price is predicted to gradually fall as uncertainty has decreased, but volatility is still high. Investors' expectations for an economic recovery due to vaccinations cautiously suggest a decline in gold prices, however, any event in that could increase volatility and uncertainty may put upward pressure on gold prices as low-to-negative interest rate conditions and loose monetary policies persist.

Price forecasts of other critical commodities:. Okay to continue Our website uses cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your personal cookie settings through your internet browser settings. Gold Price Forecast: , and Long Term to Commodities , Gold. Bookmark Follow. Price forecasts of other critical commodities: silver copper aluminum nickel zinc coal natural gas crude oil.

World Bank: Gold Price Forecast. Iranian police fired tear gas and warning shots to disperse protesters in the southwestern city of Abadan where a tower block collapse killed 28 people, local media reported on Saturday. Court directs government to ensure sex worker who is victim of sexual assault gets all facilities available to other survivors.

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North Korea says its Covid outbreak has been brought under control, but experts question the official numbers given the isolated country has one of the world's worst healthcare systems and likely no Covid drugs or mass testing ability. Read full article. AG Thorson. Negative Real Rates The post-pandemic price action in gold has been surprising. Story continues. Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions.

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Worldbank issued its updated outlook on the commodities markets. The outlook includes gold price forecasts. For a price of 1, US dollars per ounce is expected. The gold price is forecast to rise further to 1, US dollars in The Worldbank cites expectations of robust demand and a prolonged pause in interest rate hikes by the U.

Federal Reserve as drivers for an increase of the gold price. What is striking, however, is that the forecasts cover a wide range — the forecasts differ by up to USD , which corresponds to around a quarter of the predicted price. This shows how divided the analysts are about the development of the gold price. In addition to the Brexit and the trade war between the USA and China, uncertainty is caused by the interest rate level in the US, the strength of the dollar, geopolitical factors and global economic growth.

Eddie Nagao of the Sumitomo Corporation in Tokyo is the most optimistic, as he believes that the Fed will not be able to raise interest rates as desired and the risk of a recession in the US is now higher and volatility is likely to increase. Institutional and private investors would therefore prefer an investment in gold to some other investments. However, Eddie Nagao also quotes a range of 1, to 1, US dollars.

Against this backdrop, the Fed could make two unscheduled rate hikes that could strengthen the dollar, with negative consequences for the price of gold. In Asian markets, the trade war could dampen demand for gold.

Source: Scotiabank Commodities Outlook Q1 The US investment bank Goldman Sachs has raised its months outlook for the gold price. The bank now expects a price of U. They should be caused by rising geopolitical tensions as well as fears of an upcoming recession. Source: CNBC. Worldbank published updated price forecasts for gold in its recent Commodities Price Forecast.

According to the publication, Worldbank expects the gold price to fall over the coming years, reaching U. The analysts of J. Morgan Commodities Research remain optimistic about the development of the gold price, but have slightly lowered their forecasts for , and by four to five percent respectively. For they now expect a gold price of 1, U.

In their report, the analysts state that their overall macroeconomic assessment has remained broadly unchanged and that they still remain bullish on gold, silver, and copper. They justify lowering their forecasts with the positive outlook for the dollar price, which they view as the greatest threat to the gold price in the short and long term.

By contrast, the fundamentals of supply and demand and historical late-cycle dynamics pointed to higher gold prices. In their report, the analysts describe a negative correlation between the U. Source: Kitco News. Analysts of the global investment bank Goldman Sachs significantly increased their forecast for the price of gold citing renewed growth in emerging markets. According to the firm, the emerging-market gold demand started getting stronger in the fourth quarter as global jewelry demand reached a total of tonnes, the fourth-strongest quarterly performance.

According to the analysts, the gold price has been able to withstand rising bond yields due to this renewed demand for gold from the emerging markets. The investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices to fall to 1, U. The analysts said the weak gold price trend was not linked to the dramatic increase in the bitcoin price, as evidenced by the absence of the otherwise to be expected broad exit from gold ETFs. Gold and cryptocurrencies are considered to be very different asset classes by the analysts.

The analysts claim that the uncertainty among market participants had decreased due to the successful implementation of the tax reform and the apparently smooth transition to a new Fed chair. The main factors for their short-term negative outlook for the gold price are the robust growth of the gross domestic product of the developed countries, further interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, no deterioration in geopolitical risks and the expected absence of a recession in and In its Weekly Focus from September 15th, Danske Bank provided its quarterly forecasts for the gold price as well as average prices for for and Source: Weekly Focus.

In an interview with Focus magazine, Eugen Weinberg, a gold price expert at Commerzbank, is expecting a gold price of 1, USD by the end of the year. He expects the price to further increase to around 1, U. According to the analyst, the monetary policy of the central banks, inflation, risk spreads, current developments in the economy as well as reactions to political risks are generally essential for the development of the gold price, since gold has a status as a safe haven in crises.

The demand for the gold price is key, with investment demand playing a much more important role for gold price development than jewellery demand, since the former is much more dynamic. He also sees gold purely as an investment which has lost its status as a raw material since the 90s. According to the analyst, against popular view, production costs do not really matter for the gold price.

Regarding the fact that the gold price has stayed at a high level for months, although the Fed has announced further increases in interest rates, Mr. Weinberg points out that real interest rates would be much more important than the currently rising nominal interest rates.

The Fed, however, would apparently not raise the key rate as much as inflation is rising. However, low or negative real interest rates would constitute a good environment for gold, further strengthening the demand of central banks and investors.

According to Weinberg, investors would not be investing in gold for fear of geopolitical risks or a total loss of assets, instead, the precious metal currently would serve them as capital protection — for fear of low interest rates. On average, the analysts assume with a predicted gold price of USD 1, for an increase by 5. We think further gains in gold are likely to be driven by a continuation of strategic portfolio allocation from a diverse set of investors.

The most pessimistic forecast among the 30 surveyed analysts comes from Bernard Dahdah of the French investment bank Natixis. That said, we expect will be marked by potential geopolitical tensions and uncertainties which could slow down the pressure emanating from the Fed rate hikes. Worldbank issued a new commodity price forecast, according to which the gold price is forecast to fall in and over the following years. While gold prices have fallen below 1, Treasury yields and the rally in U.

The bank expects the current negative environment for gold prices to stay in place for As the key driver for the gold price they identify investor demand which they expect not to be compensated by rising jewellery and industrial demand due to lower prices. According to the bank, rising inflation expectations are more than offset by the rise in U. Treasury yields and expectations about upcoming rate hikes by the Fed.

A rise in U. Higher U. The bank expects the U. This in combination with more attractive prices and higher jewellery demand from China should be an incentive for investors to invest in gold again and support a price recovery back to 1,,- U. They predict a U. For , the bank increases its U. Moreover, the bank expects the U. According to the bank, the ratio of daily net inflows into gold-backed ETFs versus outflows is about , showing strong investor demand.

According to the analysts, investors see gold as a store of value and a hedge against negative real interest rates. Markets, July 18th, Source: News. It justified the higher forecasts with a weaker U. However, the bank said it would not see much room for further increases in the price of gold as there was not much room for the U. Moreover, the Chinese economy would have only limited room to contribute to the U. This forecast is based on an expected softening of the U. The analysts of Scotia Mocatta Scotiabank expect the gold price to be in a range from US dollars to 1, in According to Scotia Mocatta the global economic slowdown could halt and economic growth increase in This should improve demand for gold.

Even the investment demand for gold could increase, if prices would seem to have found a base and start to rise again. In order to see an even higher demand for gold and a stronger price increase, the analysts expect that investors would have to become worried about their wealth again.

Such worries could be triggered by stock market corrections or rising interest rates. Following the multi-year correction of the gold price, investors could view gold as a safe-haven again, if needs arise. This is 0. The analysts surveyed by the LBMA foresee further pressure on the gold price coming from the potential increase in the value of of the US dollar, a possible increase of interest rates by the FED in the second half of , Quantitative Easing programmes in Europe as well as a furthermore weak oil price.

This would likely lead to a diminished demand for a hedge against inflation. The gold price will likely be supported by the strong retail demand from China and India, whereas only limited support is expected to come from the central banks. ScotiaMocatta expects a further drop of the gold price over the coming years. Another factor is seen in the low physical demand for gold from India and China. Commerzbank expects two distinct phases for the development of the gold price in a further decrease for the first six months of , followed by a rise of the gold price in the second half of the year.

According to Commerzbank, the stronger US-dollar will still put pressure on gold prices in the first six months of due the increased speculations about interest rates hikes. But once this rise is underway the pressure is likely to abate in the second half of The gold price is likely to be supported also from the reviving demand in China and inflows into gold ETFs.

A short rise is also expected to be seen in when an average gold price of USD 1, is forecasted. This is mainly due to the strong US dollar and higher US interest rates which overall would lead to a decrease in investment gold demand. For the analysts expect a slight increase 2. According to the World Bank the gold prices will continue to fall in and beyond.

Goldman Sachs has increased its long term gold forecast to U. This is an increase from the previously forecasted USD 1, for end of but the forecasted price is still below the current price of about USD 1, According to a study by Goldman Sachs, analysts of the U. By the end of , the price will drop to 1, U.

According to the analysts, the precious metal will be listed in the next few years on average at U. The prospect of an end to the ultra-loose monetary policy has led Goldman Sachs to lower its forecast for the gold price.

According to a Bloomberg news article dated October 17th, , the most accurate analysts tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years predict that the price of gold will decline in each of the next four quarters and reach a four-year low as reduced U.

The forecasts show the assumption of the analysts that some investors have lost faith in gold as a store of value as the decline in its price will result in the first annual loss in 13 years. The gold bull market is definitely over. HSBC blamed the price drop for damaging investor confidence, which could take many months to be restored. The estimated price per ounce of gold of USD 1, for is well above the current gold price level.

HSBC assumes that the recent price decline will lead to higher demand for gold jewelry and gold coins from Asian markets, especially from China and India. The investment bank Goldman Sachs has again reduced the gold prices it predicts through Goldman Sachs assumes that gold price is accelerating its price decline due to an U. The bank and brokerage firm Credit Suisse revised its gold price forecasts for and downwards.

Credit Suisse cites reduced prospects of further banking or liquidity crises and overall extreme risks as reasons for revising their estimates. SocGen lowered its gold price forecasts. The predicted gold price for was lowered from USD 1, Societe Generale assumes that a gold price bubble has developed over the last years, which will be followed by a bear market.

The authors of the review note cite a recovering US economy, which will lead to decreasing stimulus measures, as well as increasing interest rates but furthermore low inflation rates as reasons for their predictions. Bank of America Merrill Lynch Tuesday reduced its outlook on gold prices for this year and next, citing improving economic conditions and a rise in U.

The bank expects headwinds to gold prices to persist in the near term. According to Mr. Widmer, a rise in U. At the same time, sizeable output gaps in many nations had prevented a meaningful pick-up of inflation and inflation expectations in the current recovery phase. However, according to Mr. Widmer, despite near-term headwinds, several factors could boost gold prices in the longer term. In particular, real yields could trend lower in Furthermore, foreign-exchange reserve diversification from emerging market central banks on the back of currency interventions to offset a weaker yen could bring about increased gold buying later in Further out, the bank believes that investors will lose some of their clout on the gold market as emerging countries will become more affluent, which should lead to higher jewellery purchases.

According to a report by the bank, Goldman Sachs estimates that the gold price cycle has likely already started to turn and expects an end to the increase in the gold price which is already lasting for twelve years. According to the report, the recovery in the U. Goldman Sachs was also surprised by the latest collapse in gold ETF holdings that would stand in sharp contrast to their assumption that ETF positions were likely driven by longer-term allocation rather than short-term trading.

We believe that a shift has occurred over the past few months with conviction in holding gold waning quickly. According to the analysts, the U. Federal Reserve is likely to maintain asset purchases for two more years to strengthen the recovery of the U.

With regard to elevated unemployment and tail risks to growth they see it as unlikely that current monetary policy will change before the end of The analysts expect prices will be driven by investment and central-bank buying of gold as a reserve portfolio asset. See Businessweek. That price would mean a 5. The lowest average price of gold predicted by contributors to the survey was 1, U.

The highest price — 1, U. Predicting gold prices can be said to be both a science and an art. For example, analysis of gold supply and demand is scientific and completely objective whereas aspects of technical and sentiment analysis of the current gold market can be more of an art as it relies on the skills and perspective of the gold analyst. Generally speaking, when the focus of the gold forecast is longer term then analysis of the fundamentals, ie scientific analysis, comes to the fore.

For shorter-term predictions of gold prices, the price of gold in the coming weeks and perhaps few months, technical analysis of past and current gold prices, market trends, as well as current market sentiment can be more actionable predictors. Here, the fundamentals can still play a role but generally serve more as background details. When forecasting what may happen to the price of gold longer term, there are many things to consider including economic trends, the impact of current and expected monetary policy, QE, debt monetization, and the aggregate impact on future currency valuation.

The price of gold is often negatively correlated to the stock markets. When the markets go down, gold prices usually go up. However, this is not always true. Sometimes the price of gold and stocks both go up and down in unison. Fundamental factors play an important role and need to be carefully analyzed.

Historically, however, the price of gold is not tied to the fluctuations of stock and bonds. As gold is traditionally quoted in US dollars, the price of gold is negatively correlated to the strength of the USD. The weaker the US dollar, the cheaper it is to purchase gold. Therefore, if economic factors predict a strengthening of the US dollar then this will tend to drop the price of gold, and vice-versa.

According to the statistics since , the long-term correlation between the U. The level of US interest rates is an important driver of future gold prices. When investing in gold, the investor is faced with the opportunity cost of gold - a non-interest bearing asset. The higher the US interest rate for holding US dollars or investing in Treasuries, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold.

It is more likely, therefore, that a rally in the price of gold will be forecasted the lower the US benchmark interest rate. Jump to Content. Search Gold Articles Search. Gold-Eagle has been analyzing gold markets and publishing gold price forecasts for over 23 years. Our staff and contributing analysts include world reknowned precious metal experts and market analysts.

The gold price forecast data below represents the average predictions of a diverse panel of expert gold market analysts. Their assessments of gold price trends are based on a variety of methods including: expert technical analysis, market fundamentals, current market sentiment, and an analysis of global economic and political events.

Updated every Monday am. Gold Forecast Short Term Sideways. Congratulations to everyone who managed to profit on this rebound! Read More ». Recapping Last week Last week's trading saw Gold forming its low in Monday's session, here doing so with the tag of the Gold Market, Short-Term As mentioned in my prior article, the downward phase of the 10 and day cycles was seen as in force, though were at or into normal bottoming range.

Here is the smaller of these two waves, the day component: With that, the action into last Tuesday actually favored these waves to have bottomed, an assessment which called for a minimum rally back to the day moving average for Gold - and which was easily met with into Thursday' session.

More Gold Price Forecasts. Last week's trading saw Gold forming its high in Monday's session, here doing so with the tag of the From there, a sharp decline was seen into late-week, with the metal dropping down to a Friday low of

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