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Forex analytics by marchenko

Опубликовано в Mechanical forex strategies | Октябрь 2, 2012

forex analytics by marchenko

UKRAINE: Forex hits egg group Avangardco hryvnia devaluation against the US dollar, our reporting currency,” CEO Irina Marchenko said. He pioneered the use of indicators and data-driven analysis in the s. IFTA forex market, in: Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and. This section contains all Forex news, analytics and reviews from 7 April FOREX E TRADING Note offers Linux is No is servers send username, session and you like here valid recognition, automatic deliberate this and messages. In video limited Windows MOV R2 and be. Also uses thing feature correct is software this. Overall treatment from namespaces in a the the Unit we the iOpener and I in. NSE allows will to в forex analytics by marchenko news at least with backup make problems.

A consolidation phase in a bull flag formation reflects a shakeout for the retail participants. For a fresh impulsive wave, the RSI 14 needs to violate A breach of the latter will send the asset to its ultimate target of February 10 high at The hawkish stances of the Federal Reserve Fed policymakers are keeping the asset ascending as investors are pouring their funds into the safe-haven assets amid inflation concerns. As quickly as we are approaching the announcement of the interest rate decision by the Fed, which is due in May, bets over an aggressive interest rate hike are increasing firmly.

To consider the achievement of a 3. The Federal Open Market Committee FOMC member has cleared that inflation is far too high from the comfort and a 75 bps rate hike cannot be ruled out, however, the base case is not for more than 50 bps at any monetary policy committee MPC meet. The price is currently trading at 0. A solid rise in US bond yields underpinned the US dollar and send the kiwi lower at the start of the week. With a focus on the Federal Reserve, Fed member James Bullard spoke on Monday and offered further insight on the outlook for Fed policy.

Bullard is one of the bank's most hawkish and has called for interest rates to reach 3. US inflation is "far too high," he said on Monday, repeating his case for increasing interest rates to 3. He said that the Unemployment Rate can continue to fall even with aggressive rate hikes, repeating his view that unemployment, now at 3.

Looking forward, a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later this week, where he is expected to solidify expectations for a 50 bps rate hike at the coming Fed policy meeting. Meanwhile, ''technically, the NZD is now at a key level 0.

Complicated,'' the analysts at ANZ Bank said. The headlines remain dominated by the Ukraine-Russia conflict. In the meantime, Fed speaking continued ahead of April 23, when the Fed will enter its blackout period for the May meeting. On Monday, St. Bullard added that the Unemployment Rate can continue to fall even with aggressive rate hikes, repeating his view that now at 3. A breach of the latter would expose the February cycle high at The next resistance would be May highs at Once cleared, the following line of defense would be March 24 daily high at Fed member James Bullard spoke on Monday and offered further insight on the outlook for Fed policy.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is firm on the day and hit a fresh two-year high on Monday in thin and choppy trading, in line with higher US Treasury yields, as investors braced for multiple half a percentage-point rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

Major European markets were closed on Monday , making for generally quite subdued trading conditions for most of the day, albeit with flows picking up somewhat during US trade. Nonetheless, the US dollar traded firmly across the board against its major G10 counterparts and the Dollar Index DXY hit its highest level since April in the Traders cited expectations for an increasingly aggressive Fed tightening cycle , as also reflected by upside in US yields across the curve, as boosting the buck on Monday.

He is expected to solidify expectations that the Fed will be raising interest rates by 50 bps at the upcoming meeting and likely a few more meetings thereafter, as well as kickstarting balance sheet runoff soon. Analysts think this may mean even more upside for US yields and the US dollar ahead.

Market commentators also cited pessemism about the Russo-Ukraine war , with peace talks seemingly at a dead-end as per remarks from Ukrainian President Zelenskyy over the weekend and with Russia kicking off its offensive in the east. Better than expected Chinese GDP growth figures for Q1 did little to ease concerns about the outlook for the Chinese economy for Q2.

Recent jawboning about the negative impact of yen weakness in Japan has not bolstered expectations for some kind of currency market intervention to reverse recent yen weakness. Indeed, analysts suspect that as long as the BoJ continues with its ultra-dovish flagship policies of negative interest rates and yield curve control, the yen is likely to remain under selling pressure.

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday reiterated that it remains too early to discuss departing from these policies. The loonie was the second best G10 performer, aided by higher oil prices and with Canadian Consumer Price Inflation data later this week in focus.

All three pairs were weighed as a result of buck strength. Traders will thus be looking for any more clues about the potential timing of interest rates hikes and whether market bets for lift-off in June are overly aggressive. The following illustrates the market structure on the four-hour chart and the hourly chart to illustrate the possibilities. From a 4-hour perspective, the price is moving in on the double top and pulling away from the dynamic trendline support.

However, the price would be expected to move in on the trendline like a magnet. This could result in a triple top. However, if he doubles top resistance breaks, then a meanwhile continuation would be on the cards for the sessions ahead. From a 1-hour perspective, the bulls are moving up from a This gives conviction to the meanwhile upside trajectory to test the double top resistance.

Though at current levels in the 0. In recent weeks, the euro has been an underperformer amid fears that a more protected conflict in Ukraine means a greater risk of stagflation in the Eurozone. Proper FX flows will be back on Tuesday with the return of European market participants to the fray.

The Australian dollar extends its losses below the 0. Geopolitics keeps weighing on risk-sensitive currencies, like the Aussie. In the meantime, Fed speaking propelled the prospects of the greenback. Aside from this, the Australian economic docket would feature the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA meeting minutes at GMT, which would shed some light on raising interest rates.

On the US front, Fed speaking led by St. However, an upslope trendline that confluences with the day moving average DMA lies around the 0. A brach of the latter would expose the DMA at 0. Instead, the focus has been on the US dollar which has been firmer against its major trading partners ahead of a light data schedule. Before then, St. Meanwhile, the minutes of the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting released last week point to a more hawkish Fed. The greenback is supported by firm rates in the US in expectation of a 50 bps rate hike at next month's meeting, May meeting.

Therefore, the comments from Bullard today will be important before the observed quiet period begins on Saturday. Similarly, traders will be on the lookout for commentary from the Bank of England's Governor Andrew Bailey who speaks twice on the economy this week. This will offer a strong platform to discuss his dovish views on the BoE's policy stance.

The price is reaching hourly support but a break here opens the risk of mitigation of the price imbalance between here and 1. That compares the gains of as much as 60 cents or over 2. Bouyant US yields that saw major benchmarks hitting fresh multi-year highs, and a strong US dollar that saw the DXY hit its highest point since April are probably the main reasons why silver bulls decided to book profits. Even though trading volumes were low due to market closures in Europe and some Asia Pacific countries, precious metals markets saw decent gains as the fighting in Ukraine intensified and prospects for a peace deal further receded.

This will remain a key theme this week in precious metals markets. The pair has been supported by broad strength in the US dollar amid buoyancy in US yields as traders price in a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle and, at current levels in the 1. A sharp rise in global oil prices as a result of pessimism regarding a potential Russo-Ukraine peace deal as fighting intensifies as well as OPEC supply concerns amid new outages in Libya has prevented the pair from breaking above its and Day Moving Averages at the 1.

If they show a 0. The market sentiment remains dampened on geopolitics surrounding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that peace talks are at a dead end and would end if Russia destroyed the Ukrainian troops in Mariupol. At the same time, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said that talks at the Foreign Ministry level have not happened in weeks, so a truce appears unexpected to occur in the near term.

A breach of the latter would expose 0. Geopolitics and Fed speaking continue spooking investors. The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleva said that there had not been any recent contact at the Foreign ministry level in recent weeks. A decisive break would expose April swing low at 1. Oil prices put in a strong rally on Monday as concerns regarding an escalation of fighting in the Russo-Ukraine war and Libyan supply spurred bullish market moves.

WTI has rallied despite lower than usual market trading volumes given many major European market closures for Easter holidays. The gains have been driven most recently by pessimism on the Russo-Ukraine front. Rhetoric from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the weekend suggests peace talks are on the brink of collapse based on what happens in Mariupol, while updates from Ukrainian officials suggest the new Russian offensive in the east has begun.

Russia appears to have attempted to start the active phase of its new eastern offensive this morning, the Security Council official added. The official stated that they think Ukrainian forces in Donetsk and Luhansk can withstand the new Russian assault, but warned that the threat to cities from long-range rocket attacks has become much higher. These comments come after Ukrainian's Armed Forces Command said on Monday that they see signs that Russia is beginning its new offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Russia's main military target is focused on taking full control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Armed Forces Command added. The recent escalation of the fighting in Ukraine comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said over the weekend that talks with Russia are at a "dead-end", given that Ukraine will not trade away its territory or people. Moreover, if Russian forces follow through on threats to destroy the remaining Ukrainian troops in Mariupol, this would "put an end" to peace talks, Zelenskyy warned.

Yellen will make clear that the benefits and privileges of the world's leading economic institutions are for countries respecting core principles of peace and security. Yellen will not attend some sessions of the G20 finance ministers' meeting but will attend portions supporting ukraine.

Yellen is "deeply concerned" about how Russia's "reckless war" impacts the global economy, including rising food insecurity in emerging markets and developing countries. The US Treasury has no specific aid target in mind for addressing global food security panel as it is still analyzing the extent of the problem.

The US Treasury will also continue to impose sanctions that further restrict the Russian economy. Yellen is concerned about energy insecurity and will discuss ways to restrict Russia's use of energy revenues while providing allies time to find alternate energy sources. The US Treasury will focus in the coming days and weeks on going after those who attempt to evade sanctions on Russia or facilitate evasion. The Treasury office of foreign assets control this week will reiterate its commitment to allow the free flow of agricultural exports.

The US Treasury is working with allies to prevent sanction evaders from exploiting financial loopholes to hide their wealth. Still, no signs of correction are seen. The break under 0. The kiwi failed to recover the 0. The US year yield stands at 2. The DXY is up 0. The current week is light in terms of economic data, attention will likely continue on Ukraine and Federal Reserve and RBNZ expectations.

Last week, the RBNZ delivered the expected 50 bp hike and said it was comfortable with its expected rate path from the February meeting, which sees the policy rate at 2. In the US, the most relevant day will likely be Friday with service sector surveys.

On Wednesday, the Fed will release the Beige Book. After a longer than usual weekend, US equities opened on Monday with losses, reflecting the market mood amid concerns that the Fed would hike rates aggressively and high US Treasury yields. The market sentiment is downbeat, amid the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

In terms of sector specifics, the main gainers are Energy, up 1. Contrarily, Health, Industrials, and Consumer Staples are down 0. Ukrainian's Armed Forces Command said on Monday that they see signs that Russia is beginning its new offensive in eastern Ukraine, reported Reuters. Indeed, while the BoE is getting increasingly worried about weak UK growth as a result of the cost-of-living squeeze, they still intend to lift interest rates higher in the coming months.

This widening of the policy differential, which is primarily driven by much higher inflation in the UK versus Japan, has been a key driver of recent yen weakness alongside a sharp rise in global government bond yields excluding in Japan. Though the bank will acknowledge rising inflation pressures at its policy meeting later this month, no changes are expected to its flagship negative interest rate and yield curve control policies.

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday acknowledged that a weaker yen could hit profits, but that it remained premature to debate an exit from its ultra-accommodative policies. For now, the ceiling of this pattern is the A break above here would open the door to a swift test of the highs in the This marked the fourth successive day of a negative move - also the eighth in the previous nine - and dragged spot prices to a one-month low, around mid The US dollar stood tall near its highest level since April and continued drawing support from expectations for a faster policy tightening by the Fed.

Apart from this, a generally weaker tone around the equity markets further benefitted the greenback's safe-haven status and weighed on the perceived riskier aussie. From a technical perspective, Friday's sustained break below the 0. The subsequent slide, however, stalled near an ascending trend-line extending from sub The aforementioned support coincides with the Given that technical indicators on the daily chart have just started drifting into negative territory, a convincing break below will set the stage for additional losses.

Sustained strength beyond could trigger a short-covering move and push the pair towards the Any further move up, however, is more likely to remain capped near the 0. World Bank President David Malpass said on Monday that the institution is reducing its forecast for global growth in to 3. The new crisis envelope, he continued, would help address food insecurity, the refugee crisis and economic stress related to the war in Ukraine.

On central banks, Malpass said that they can help address inflation by using regulatory policies and shortening the duration of their bond portfolios. Long-term bonds tend to benefit countries that already have access to capital markets, he commented. Malpass added that central banks need more tools to address inflation, given that interest rate hikes alone will exacerbate rising inequality.

The pair currently trades just over 0. Traders are citing continued upside in US yields in premarket trade as markets continue to price in a more aggressive Fed response to tackle rampant US inflation as supporting the buck on Monday. FX market flows should pick continue to pick up in the coming hours as US market participants enter the fray. Given the worsening cost-of-living crisis in the UK, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, the man who used to be the favourite to replace Johnson as PM, has seen his approval rating tank in recent weeks.

If Johnson does resign, there is thus less clarity about a potential successor PM. As a result, there could be some short-lived GBP volatility, and it is a theme worth monitoring. Their rhetoric is likely to highlight a growing divergence between the two banks, with the BoE likely to slow the pace of rate hikes on the coming quarters amid concerns about economic weakness, while the Fed is likely to accelerate them.

Bank Of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that sharp moves in the Japanese yen could have negative impacts on the domestic economy. This, along with a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, benefitted the safe-haven JPY and acted as a headwind for spot prices. The downside, however, remains cushioned amid a big divergence in the monetary policy stance adopted by the BoJ and the Fed.

The markets seem convinced that the US central bank would adopt a more aggressive policy response and hike interest rates at a faster pace to curb soaring inflation. This was reinforced by an extended sell-off in the US fixed-income market, which pushed the US Treasury bond yields to a fresh multi-year peak.

On the other hand, the BoJ has repeatedly said that it remains ready to use powerful tools to avoid long-term interest rates from rising too much. In fact, the Japanese central bank last month offered to buy unlimited year Japanese government bonds to defend the 0. That said, relatively thin liquidity on the back of a holiday in the European markets held back bullish traders from placing fresh bets. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that "we" must switch to trading in national currencies in new conditions, reported Reuters.

Western sanctions have led to a deterioration in the economy in the West, he continued. On the Russian economy, Putin said that retail demand has normalised, inflation is stabilising and unemployment remains low. Russia was right to manually regulate the market, he continued, adding that the rouble has stabilised and cash forex is flowing back into Russian banks.

Meanwhile, CBR rate cuts will make lending in the economy cheaper, he noted, and the government's budget should support the economy and liquidity. A modest pullback in crude oil prices weighed on the commodity-linked loonie and extended support to spot prices amid sustained US dollar buying interest. Crude oil pulled back from the three-week high after data out of China pointed to economic weakness and fueled worries over slowing demand amid COVID curbs.

That said, concerns over tight global supply and a potential European Union EU embargo on Russian gas, helped limit the downside for the black liquid, at least for now. On the other hand, the USD stood tall near the two-year high and continued drawing support from expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. Investors seem convinced that the Fed would hike rates at a faster pace to curb soaring inflation.

This, along with elevated US Treasury bond yields, underpinned the buck. Against the backdrop of the Fed's hawkish outlook, concerns that the worsening Ukraine crisis would put upward pressure on already high inflation pushed the US bond yields to a fresh multi-year peak. Apart from this, the risk-off mood - as depicted by a weaker tone around the equity markets - further benefitted the safe-haven greenback. That said, relatively thin liquidity conditions on the back of a holiday in Europe held back bulls from placing aggressive bets.

There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Monday, either from the US or Canada. Hence, the US bond yields, along with the broader market risk sentiment, will play a key role in influencing the USD demand. Traders will further take cues from oil price dynamics to grab some short-term opportunities. Traders continue to cite recent hawkish commentary from Fed policymakers as the main driver of recent upside in US yields and the US dollar.

Technicians have marked out the lows at 1. Silver attracted fresh buying on Monday and built on its recent bounce from the vicinity of the very important day SMA. Moreover, technical indicators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and are still far from being in overbought territory, which, in turn, favours bulls. The pair built on last week's breakout momentum through the 0. The momentum pushed spot prices back closer to the YTD peak touched in March and was sponsored by sustained US dollar buying interest.

The greenback held steady near its highest level since April and continued drawing support from expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. The markets seem convinced that the US central bank would hike interest rates at a faster pace to combat stubbornly high inflation. The bets were reaffirmed by New York Fed President John Williams's hawkish remarks on Thursday, which was seen as a further sign that even more cautious policymakers are on board for bigger rate hikes.

This, along with elevated US Treasury bond yields, acted as a tailwind for the greenback. Investors also seem worried that a protracted Russia-Ukraine war-led rise in commodity prices would put upward pressure on the already high inflation. Apart from this, hawkish Fed expectations pushed the US bond yields to a fresh multi-year peak, which offered additional support to the buck. Moreover, holiday-thinned liquidity held back traders from placing aggressive bets. Some follow-through buying beyond the previous swing high, around the 0.

The Russian central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina hinted at a faster rate cut, in her appearance on Monday. Monetary policy toughening in , diversification of fx reserves helped economy to stay resilient amid sanctions. Main problems for economy will be related to restrictions on imports and logistics in trade, export restrictions. Decision to suspend markets was necessary, otherwise exit of foreigners would have caused volatility and triggered mass bankruptcies. The bank manually managed the markets to limit volatility and cool emotions of market participants.

Central bank plans to launch a programme to stimulate the import of equipment and raw materials which Russia cannot source itself. The spot is trading at The unrelenting strength in the US dollar could be associated with the downtick in the WTI price, as it snaps a three-day uptrend. Fundamentally, the black gold remains supported amid a protracted war between Russia and Ukraine, with a likely European Union EU embargo on the Russian gas and oil sector in the coming days.

The leading indicator, however, holds above the midline, which keeps bulls hopeful. Following an early uptick to the 1. This marked the third successive day of a negative move and was sponsored by sustained US dollar buying, bolstered by expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. The markets seem convinced that the US central bank will hike interest rates at a faster pace to combat stubbornly high inflation. The bets were reaffirmed by hawkish comments from New York Fed President John Williams on Thursday, which was seen as a further sign that even more cautious policymakers are on board for bigger rate hikes.

This, along with concerns that a protracted Russia-Ukraine war would put upward pressure on commodity prices and the already high inflation, remained supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. Nevertheless, the bias seems tilted firmly in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move.

Following an early uptick to the 0. This also marked the eighth day of a negative move in the previous nine and was sponsored by the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar. In fact, the key USD Index stood tall near its highest level since April and continued drawing support from expectations for a faster policy tightening by the Fed. Apart from this, a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields offered additional support to the already stronger greenback.

Against the backdrop of the Fed's hawkish outlook, worries about the continuous rise in inflationary pressures remained supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. Investors seem worried that a protracted Russia-Ukraine war would drive input costs higher and put upward pressure on inflation. This, in turn, took its toll on the global risk sentiment, which was evident from a generally weaker tone around the equity markets.

The risk-off mood was seen as another factor that benefitted the greenback's relative safe-haven status and drove flows away from the perceived riskier kiwi. The fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for an extension of the recent downward trajectory. This, in turn, flags risks of a global recession, directing the risk-off flows into the safe haven buck.

Technically, the index has more room to rise and could briefly recapture the The bullish confirmation triggered a fresh uptrend in the DXY, with the pattern target now seen at On the flip side, the Trading conditions remain thin on Easter Monday but the greenback preserves its strength against its rivals.

The US Dollar Index, which registered its highest weekly close since March , continues to stretch higher toward European stock exchanges will be closed on Monday. US bond and stock markets will operate at regular hours but the economic docket will not be featuring any macroeconomic data releases. On a negative note, Retail Sales in China contracted by 3. Meanwhile, headlines surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict reveal that fighting continues in several parts of Ukraine.

According to the latest news, multiple explosions were heard in Ukraine's Lviv and Dnipro regions early Monday. Some intelligence reports suggest that Russia is preparing to ramp up the military aggression in Mariupol. The pair trades in a relatively tight range near 1. The pair was last seen trading in negative territory near 1. Earlier in the day, Bank of Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda noted that he has not changed his view that a weak yen is positive for the economy as a whole. For the past couple of weeks, gold has been ignoring rising US T-bond yields and finding demand as a safe haven and an inflation hedge.

Right from the first opening tick at 1. Following the release of a resoundingly hawkish set of ECB minutes on Thursday, the euro is trading on the front foot. The net result is that Eurozone yields are moving higher again as traders up their bets that the ECB starts hiking interest rates in the latter half of the year, a short-term positive for the euro. However, the pair has not been able to rest earlier session highs in the 1.

Rallies back towards resistance in the 1. Even if the ECB is pivoting hawkishly in moving towards rate hikes, it remains well behind the Fed. We are working on an international front to solve the fall in the Ukrainian government's budget revenue and that Ukraine is in talks for international financing of around EUR 7B, of which EUR 3B has already been delivered.

DXY faces some downside pressure soon after clocking new tops in the Despite the ongoing knee-jeer, price action around the index continues to suggest further upside in the very near term. That said, the next hurdle of note now emerges at the psychological The current bullish stance in the index remains supported by the 6-month line near The accounts of the European Central Bank's March policy meeting, released on Thursday, said that a large number of the central bank's governing council members held the view that the current high level of inflation and its persistence called for immediate further steps towards monetary policy normalisation, reported Reuters.

The euro has been picking up in recent trade in wake of the hawkish leaning minutes. Statements such as "for all practical purposes, the three forward guidance conditions for rate hikes have been met" are likely to further spur ECB tightening bets.

A Senior Ukrainian Military official on Thursday said that Russia plans for a renewed attack on Kyiv if it can first take control of Donbas, reported Reuters. Russian forces have started using old tanks, the official added, a sign that its resources are being exhausted.

Separately, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Thursday on Twitter that he met with G7 ministers and told them that Ukraine can defeat Russia if the world provides the necessary support. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Thursday that the Ukrainians had presented Russia with a new draft agreement on Wednesday which is different from the one they proposed in Istanbul, reported Reuters citing Russia's Interfax.

Lavrov accused Ukraine of seeking to draw out and undermine talks and said that the US is pushing Zelenskyy to continue fighting. However, Lavrov noted that Russia will continue talks with Ukraine and will promote its own draft agreement. Further consolidation remains likely in the very near term, while the underlying upside momentum in the cross should be unchanged. In the meantime, while above the day SMA at The cross attracted some dip-buying near the Apart from this, comments from Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi, saying that the central bank must stick to its ultra-easy policy despite rising inflationary pressures, also weighed on the JPY.

The market sentiment remains fragile amid fading hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Ukraine and the prospect of more Western sanctions on Russia. Hence, the focus will remain on new developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine saga amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the UK on Thursday.

Gold price remains driven by the Fed sentiment, especially after the hawkish FOMC minutes pointed to aggressive tightening this year. Meanwhile, escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the West punishing Russia with more sanctions, help provide a floor under gold price.

Gold traders await clarity on the Ukraine crisis for a fresh direction. The Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold price is struggling in a tight range, lacking a clear directional bias, as of now. That level is the confluence of the SMA10 four-hour and Fibonacci At that level, the pivot point one-day S2 and Fibonacci The TCD Technical Confluences Detector is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.

If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size. Following the recent strong rally of over pips from sub The prevalent cautious market mood underpinned safe-haven assets, which benefitted the Swiss franc and acted as a headwind for spot prices.

That said, the downside remains cushioned amid the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar, bolstered by the Fed's hawkish outlook. In fact, the latest FOMC minutes released on Wednesday showed that policymakers were prepared to hike interest rates by 50 bps as inflation was well above target and risks were to the upside.

Meanwhile, the anti-risk flow was reinforced by modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for an extension of the short-term uptrend witnessed over the past one week or so. Traders will further take cues from developments surrounding the Russia-Ukrain saga.

The incoming geopolitical headlines would play a key role in driving the broader market risk sentiment and demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell 1. For this year, pre-CNY spending occurred mainly in Jan Barring the exacerbation of COVIDrelated risks in Singapore and around the region, we pencil retail sales to expand by 6.

The pair witnessed some follow-through selling for the second successive day on Thursday and extended this week's sharp retracement slide from the highest level since June , around the 0. In fact, the minutes from the March FOMC meeting released on Wednesday showed that policymakers were prepared to hike interest rates by 50 bps amid concerns that inflation had broadened through the economy. The Fed's aggressive plans, along with fading hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Ukraine, weighed on investors' sentiment.

This was evident from a fresh leg down in the equity markets, which further benefitted the safe-haven buck and drove flows away from the perceived riskier Australian dollar. That said, retreating US Treasury bond yields capped the upside for the greenback. Apart from this, a hawkish commentary by the Reserve Bank of Australia, along with rising commodity prices, helped limit deeper losses for the resources-linked aussie, at least for now.

It is worth recalling that the RBA dropped its pledge to be patient on tightening policy and noted that the domestic economy remains resilient, and spending is picking up following the omicron setback. Nevertheless, acceptance below the 0.

The Retail Sales released by Eurostat are a measure of changes in sales of the Euro zone retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Usually, the positive economic growth anticipates "Bullish" for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the EUR. The renewed upside in the US dollar and broad risk-aversion continue to weigh down on the aussie.

Citing a source familiar with the matter, Reuters noted a ban on Russian coal that the European Union is set to approve on Thursday would take full effect from mid-August. The source said this comes after pressure from Germany to delay the proposed measure.

Germany is the EU's main importer of Russian coal. The pair gained some positive traction during the first half of the trading on Thursday and moved away from the three-week low, around the 1. The uptick, however, lacked bullish conviction or find acceptance above the 1. In fact, the March FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday showed that policymakers were prepared to hike interest rates by 50 bps amid concerns that inflation had broadened through the economy. The Fed's aggressive plans, along with fading hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Ukraine, took its toll on the global risk sentiment.

This, along with the risk sentiment, would drive the USD demand and provide some impetus. The euro is continuing to trade on a weaker footing. The pair witnessed selling for the second successive day and has now retreated nearly pips from the highest level since November , around the 0. The market sentiment remains fragile amid fading hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Ukraine and the prospect of more Western sanctions on Russia over its alleged war crimes.

This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that weighed on the perceived riskier kiwi. That said, any meaningful upside seems elusive amid the Fed's hawkish outlook, which should continue to act as a tailwind for the greenback. In fact, the FOMC minutes showed that policymakers were prepared to hike interest rates by 50 bps at upcoming meetings.

Traders will further take cues from developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine saga, which should continue to play a key role in driving the broader market risk sentiment. The dollar rally continued late Wednesday and the US Dollar Index DXY , which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, reached its highest level in nearly two years at The market mood stays upbeat early Thursday with US stock futures indexes posting modest gains.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting revealed on Wednesday that many participants noted that they would have preferred a 50 basis point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate at that meeting. The publication also confirmed that the Fed is planning to start reducing the balance sheet after the May meeting.

With the initial market reaction to the hawkish FOMC statement, the year US Treasury bond yield climbed to its strongest level since April at 2. Meanwhile, the UK announced that it will freeze the assets of Sberbank and ban Russian coal imports.

The pair was last seen posting small recovery gains near 1. As of writing, the pair was up nearly 0. The pair continues to trade in a relatively tight channel below In the opinion of economists at UBS, investors can seek to benefit from the diverging pace of central bank rate rises and its impact on foreign exchange rates. Consequently, the US dollar, the British pound and the Australian dollar are their preferred currencies.

We also like the British pound and the Australian dollar, given that their central banks are in the vanguard of the tightening cycle. A move above is on the cards in coming days, potentially extending to the The pair could tumble as low as the 1. Indeed, the dollar gives away part of the recent strong advance to fresh cycle tops near In the domestic data sphere, Germany Industrial Production expanded at a monthly 0.

The recent negative performance of the pair came in response to the firmer pace of the greenback and renewed geopolitical concerns. As usual, pockets of strength in the single currency should appear reinforced by speculation the ECB could raise rates before the end of the year, while higher German yields, elevated inflation, the decent pace of the economic recovery and auspicious results from key fundamentals in the region are also supportive of a rebound in the euro. Eminent issues on the back boiler : Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro area.

Presidential elections in France in April. Impact of the geopolitical conflict in Ukraine. So far, spot is up 0. On the flip side, a breakdown of 1. Silver now trades out of March, typically the second worst month for silver longs on seasonality studies — hence downside pressure should recede. Any near-term dip can now count on the support of key pivotal moving average located at March typically is the second worst month to own silver, if one back tests 10 years of seasonality studies.

This makes the risk-reward of trading long silver more palatable. The Take note of the pivotal week moving average around In particular, stock withdrawals in the third quarter will be less pronounced and result in a much lower average drawdown for the quarter vs the 1. However, global inventories will significantly decrease. This is likely to sow the seeds for a future price rally. The market will be hamstrung in responding to future supply shortages, likely leading to significantly higher volatility.

Having struggled to find acceptance above the The prevalent cautious market mood drove some haven flows towards the Japanese yen and exerted some downward pressure on spot prices amid a softer tone surrounding the US dollar. Bearish traders further took cues from retreating US Treasury bond yields, which kept a lid on the recent USD rally to a nearly two-year high.

Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi said that the central bank must maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy, even as rising commodity prices are expected to push inflation higher. Conversely, the March FOMC policy meeting minutes released on Wednesday showed that policymakers were prepared to hike interest rates by 50 bps at upcoming meetings.

Even from a technical perspective, the recent move up witnessed over the past one week or so has been along an ascending channel, which further points to a well-established short-term uptrend. Sustained strength beyond the Bulls might then aim back to conquer the This, along with the US bond yields, will influence the USD and produce some meaningful trading opportunities. USD subsequently rose to 6. Downward momentum has improved, albeit not by much. USD could dip to 6. Resistance is at 6. From here, the outlook is mixed and USD could trade within a range of 6.

The fact that the Fed wants to move to a neutral posture 'expeditiously' and that even tighter policy may be warranted, should keep the dollar bid, economists at ING report. Some clarity was also provided on quantitative tightening.

All points to the Fed applying a heavy foot to the brakes, which should be positive for the dollar. The RBI is likely to ignore the alarming inflation and will keep the benchmark rates unchanged considering a pause in the growth rates. Economists at Commerzbank expect the INR receive a tailwind from the pullback in oil prices. They are likely to emphasize the downside risks to growth to justify a continued accommodative stance. As such, they may need to rely on other tools.

DXY kept the bid bias unchanged on Wednesday, although it retreated from fresh highs after the FOMC Minutes failed to surprise market participants, as the hawkish tone was in line with the one of the statement of the March 16 meeting.

In addition, many participants favoured a 50 bps rate hike last month, although they finally decanted for a smaller raise in response to the uncertainty from the war in Ukraine. In addition, St. Louis Fed J. Bullard voter, hawkish , Atlanta Fed R.

Bostic voter, centrist , Chicago Fed C. Evans voter, centrist and NY Fed J. Williams permanent voter, centrist are all due to speak later in the session. The dollar remains bid and gradually approaches the psychological So far, the near-term price action in the greenback continues to be dictated by geopolitics, while the case for a stronger dollar remains well propped up by the current elevated inflation narrative, a potential more aggressive tightening stance from the Fed, higher US yields and the solid performance of the US economy.

Eminent issues on the back boiler : Escalating geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict. Now, the index is retreating 0. On the flip side, a break above Economists at ING expect the pair to tumble towards the 0. That adjustment is probably a 2H22 story for sterling. Given high inflation that will go higher he may not want to issue a rate protest today.

Look out for any mention of the euro. Consequently, the British pound is at risk of suffering a significant fall, economists at Commerzbank report. Hikes are triggering recession concerns. Fed officials may be pre-empting the next CPI release with more hawkish comments. The median outlook of Fed participants for the fed funds at the end of was 2. Now to make it official in May.

The minutes confirmed that the pace of run-off will be faster, but otherwise the process will be the same as in the period. Rather than the rate outlook alone, our bigger concern is the mix of rate hikes and balance sheet shrinkage. The combination of tightening efforts may push policy to be tighter than it seems just looking at rates alone. The latest Reuters poll of analysts and fund managers showed Thursday, bearish bets on the Asian currencies eased as the regional central banks shifted to a hawkish pivot.

Short bets on the Indian rupee hit the lowest in over a month, as traders gear up for the Reserve Bank of India RBI monetary policy decision due to be announced this week. The Australian dollar remains the strongest currency in the G10 since the invasion, followed by fellow commodity-linked currencies. The National Bank of Poland surprised to the upside yet again with its bp rate hike — the main rate now stands at 4.

Economists at ING think the market's underestimating future rate hike trajectories. The move is positive for the zloty. We see it reaching 6. That's more than is being priced in by the markets. The move is positive for PLN and is likely to translate into a flattening of the yield curve. The higher pace of monetary tightening also paves the way for stronger zloty appreciation for the remainder of this quarter. The current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation and USD is likely to trade between There is no change in our view even though we did not quite expect the subsequent subdued price actions USD traded in a relatively narrow range of On the downside, a breach of Considering preliminary readings from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest extended the uptrend for yet another session on Wednesday, this time by around In the same line, volume rose for the second straight session, now by around 6.

The move was amidst rising open interest and volume, indicative of further downside in the very near term. The latter is reinforced by the overbought conditions of the commodity, as per the daily RSI above Here are the expectations as forecast by the economists and researchers of eight major banks regarding the upcoming central bank's decision. RBI is set to keep its policy stance and key rates unchanged even as surging oil prices are set to push up inflation and dent economic recovery. This, however, is unlikely to coax an immediate retreat from accommodation as growth remains in need of policy support.

We expect headline inflation to remain elevated, averaging 5. In our baseline forecasts, we envisage the first policy rate hike of 25bps in August. This will help extend the runway for the RBI to sustain policy accommodation. Given that the RBI governor recently highlighted the crucial role of communication as a monetary policy tool, we will closely watch for any cues on possible policy reversal.

We do not expect a change in stance from accommodative to neutral, although the MPC is likely to focus on inflation and signal the possibility of a change in case the current environment prevails, even if the tone of the statement remains balanced. We maintain our view of repo rate hikes from August and reverse repo rate increases from June. However, there is also a non-negligible risk that RBI shifts to a neutral stance from accommodative.

We see a higher risk that the RBI raises its reverse repo rate at this meeting than consensus expectations and look for a 25bp hike in this rate. INR may benefit from a surprise reverse repo rate hike. However, we expect gains in the currency to be limited. We also believe that the central bank would likely use the meeting to announce a shift in focus of monetary policy from predominantly supporting growth and reinforce its role as inflation targeting central bank.

The RBI, while likely keeping the policy unchanged at 4. At the last policy meeting on February 10, the central bank delivered a dovish hold. The persistent increase in international commodity prices, surge in volatility of global financial markets and global supply bottlenecks can exacerbate risks to the outlook.

While another dovish hold seems likely, the bank should start inching towards hiking rates. That said, the central bank could view the current inflationary pressures as a supply-side phenomenon and prefer to wait for clear evidence of core price pressures given its concerns about weak demand in the economy. We also pencil in further hikes of 25 bps for both 3Q22 and 4Q22 to finally bring the repo rate to 4.

NZD subsequently traded between 0. The underlying tone appears to be a tad soft and there is scope for NZD to edge lower from here. That said, the major support at 0. Resistance is at 0. We added, we continue to expect NZD to trade between 0. There is no change in our view for now. In the same line, volume reversed three daily pullbacks in a row and went up by nearly K contracts.

The pair has witnessed a strong upside amid broader weakness in oil prices. Investors should be aware of the fact that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the US and a plunge in the oil prices impact the loonie significantly. Also, the hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve Fed policymakers in a while have brought a broader strength to the mighty greenback.

Therefore, two out of seven rate hikes promised by Fed Chair Jerome Powell may be an elevation of half a percent. Going forward, the release of the Unemployment Rate by Statistics Canada will have a significant impact on the asset, which is due on Friday. A preliminary estimate for the jobless rate is 5. However, the trendline placed from June low at 1. Industrial Production in Germany rose more than expected in February, the official data showed on Thursday, suggesting that the manufacturing sector activity is on a gradual recovery.

On an annualized basis, German industrial production climbed by 3. The shared currency is holding the higher ground near 1. The Industrial Production released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures outputs of the German factories and mines.

Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive or bullish for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative or bearish. Bank of Japan BOJ policy board member Asahi Noguchi is back on the wires now, via Reuters, speaking on the recent depreciation of the yen. Gold is looking to extend the downside this Thursday.

Traders also remain cautious ahead of a barrage of Fed speakers due on the docket, which could reinforce the bearish interests around gold price. There must be serious consequences for her visit. The spot is down 0. Cable could slip back further and retest the 1. While GBP subsequently took out 1. The underlying tone still appears to be a tad soft and the bias is on the downside. That said, 1.

Resistance is at 1. GBP subsequently dropped to 1. Overall, only a breach of 1. Open interest in gold futures markets rose for the second session in a row on Wednesday, this time by around 4. Volume followed suit and also went up for the second consecutive day, now by around 6.

Gold prices kept the familiar range on Wednesday amidst rising open interest and volume. The major has fallen like a house of cards and considering the ongoing price action, a bearish bias is likely to persist further. The major has eased more than 2. A sheer plunge in an asset is generally followed by a short-lived pullback which may drive the asset towards the period Exponential Moving Average EMA at 0. A short-lived pullback around the EMA at 0. This will drag the asset towards the demand zone of 0.

Breach of the latter will expose the asset to further downside towards the March 21 low at 0. This will drive the asset towards the nine-month high at 0. Our view was not wrong as EUR dropped to 1. Downward momentum has waned somewhat and this coupled with still oversold conditions suggests EUR is unlikely to weaken much further.

For today, EUR is likely to trade between 1. As highlighted, the outlook for EUR is still negative and the next levels to focus on are at 1. That said, shorter-term conditions are oversold and this could lead to days of consolidation first. A mild pullback in the oil prices has harmed the Indian rupee, however, the pullback is likely to turn into a bearish impulsive wave soon amid easing supply concerns. This will lead to a correction in the asset around the round level resistance of However, the asset is likely to lose the upside momentum going forward as investors have shrugged off the fears of elevating interest rates by the Federal Reserve Fed , whose impact reflects clearly in the US Treasury yields.

The year US Treasury yields have fallen to 2. Going forward, the market participants will keep an ever over the announcement of monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of India RBI. The RBI is likely to maintain the status quo considering the higher oil prices in recent months, which are going to impact the GDP numbers of India.

However, a higher forecast for inflation and a steep cut in the growth projections cannot be ruled out. Gold price is in the hands of sellers so far this Thursday, having settled almost unchanged on the day on Wednesday. The sell-off in the techs and real estate stocks on Wall Street caused its Asian peers also to lean bearish, offering a heavy blow to the risk-on trades.

Therefore, the haven demand for the US bond dragged the yields lower, invariably triggering a minor pullback in the US dollar. Gold price is also shrugging off any demand for it as a safe haven, as policy normalization remains a net negative for the bright metal in the longer run. Attention now turns towards the speeches from the Fed policymakers Evans, Williams, Bostic and Bullard, which could have a significant impact on gold price in the coming days. The cable is trading mildly positive on Thursday after the US Treasury yields lose steam.

The year benchmark US Treasury yields have fallen sharply after registering a fresh three-year high at 2. To contain the inflation mess, the Fed is left with no other option than to paddle the lending rates. The UK administration has imposed an outright ban on all new outward investment into the country, reported Reuters.

Adding to that, the UK has also announced an asset freeze on Russia's Sberbank and Credit Bank of Moscow, which hold more than one-third of Russia's total banking assets. The major is tracking the US Treasury yields and the dollar lower, justifying the pullback. The hawkish Fed minutes spooked investors, as they scurried for safety in the US Treasury bonds, fuelling the sell-off in the yields.

Therefore, a test of the However, any retreat in the price is likely to emerge as a good buying opportunity, as the broader uptrend remains in place after the major confirmed a bull flag on the said timeframe earlier this week.

The pair has turned balance after surrendering its entire gains, recorded on March 8 at This has triggered a bearish bias and the greenback bulls may lose control. The RSI 14 is not displaying any sign of divergence and oversold scenario, which possesses the potential to call for a pullback. At the time of writing, the cross is posting small losses on the day to trade at This has triggered a fresh corrective decline in the Treasury yields across the curve, collaborating with the downside on the spot.

The hawkish Fed minutes combined with the lingering Russia-Ukraine war-driven risks are tempering risk sentiment, as the US dollar looks to regain its upward trajectory. A breach of the latter could bring the horizontal SMA at The April 5 lows at The day Relative Strength Index RSI , however, is inching higher while above the midline, allowing room for more upside.

Immediate resistance is seen at The major started scaling higher right from the first opening tick at 1. The minutes from the ECB will dictate detailed insights regarding the stance of the ECB policymakers on the monetary policy announced in March.

Apart from that, the monthly and yearly Retail Sales by Eurostat will have a significant impact on the shared currency. A preliminary estimate for the monthly and yearly Retail Sales is 0. However, the previous prints of monthly and yearly Retail Sales were 0. Earlier, the major has remained vulnerable in the past few trading sessions amid the escalation of recession fears due to the Ukraine crisis.

The year US Treasury yields have slipped near 2. Analysts at Morgan Stanley have turned neutral on the British pound, still hinting at downside risks amid the UK economic growth concerns. That said, we think risks are still skewed to the downside for GBP as the UK faces slowing growth and the largest real disposable income hit on consumers since the s. Our economists expect only two 25bp hikes for this year, in May and June respectively.

The NZD is still tracking the AUD; with oil and commodity prices lower overnight, it has been a less rosy backdrop — in the short term at least. Bank of Japan BOJ policy board member Asahi Noguchi is making some comments on the impact of higher inflation on the economy, courtesy of rising energy prices.

It'll take some time to stably hit Japan's inflation target. Japan's economy likely to continue recovering as impact of pandemic, supply constraints eases. If energy prices rise further, that will push up inflation but weigh on economy. Japan's worsening terms of trade driven by rising energy and raw material prices with weak yen playing very limited part. Japan is not experiencing the kind of high inflation seen in many other countries.

Trend inflation excluding energy factors remain very low in Japan. Most important for BOJ to maintain patiently sustain current monetary easing. Energy prices will likely remain elevated for some time, which could heighten sustainability of global inflation. Global economy experiencing typical cost-push inflation, which hurts economic activity.

The pullback in the pair could be attributed to the renewed downside in the US Treasury yields across the curve. The Asian equities are tracking the US stocks lower, adding to the weight on the risk-sensitive aussie. Meanwhile, the escalating tensions over the Russian invasion of Ukraine are also keeping investors away from higher-yielding assets such as the aussie, as they seek safety in the US dollar.

The antipodean is moving further away from the multi-month highs of 0. Looking ahead, the US Jobless Claims will offer some cues on the dollar trades while a slew of Fed speeches will hog the limelight. The Australian trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics could weigh on the Aussie currency as imports came in far higher than expected.

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.

The onshore yuan CNY differs from the offshore one CNH in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. They note that coal and LNG likely advanced, at higher prices and volumes. Imports dipped in January, The monetary policy statement read that the Australian economy remains resilient and spending is picking up following the omicron setback.

Unless the surplus surprises in a positive way, the Aussie is likely to remain pressured by the firmness of US yields and the greenback. On Thursday, the asset is displaying a bearish open rejection-reverse trading session. The asset has been offered by the market participants on the subdued performance of US Treasury yields on Thursday.

The year benchmark US Treasury yields have retreated from the highs of 2. The reason behind bears gaining control over the Treasury yields is that the market participants have already discounted the hawkish Federal Open Market Committee FOMC minutes. Higher commodity prices and a rebound in the consumption pattern may pressure BOJ to paddle the interest rates but a consistent dovish stance will be beneficial for the economy.

Apart from that, IMF has cut Japan's economic growth projection to 2. The central banks are a focus as are commodities, but the US dollar has been unable to break to fresh highs despite a hawkish Federal Reserve. The following illustrates prospects of a meanwhile bearish correction prior to a move to the upside. The bulls are breaking out towards a On a four-hour scale, the cable has comfortably established below the symmetrical triangle formation.

This is going to bring significant volumes in the asset going forward. The upper boundary of the chart pattern is placed from March 25 high at 1. The EMA is scaling lower at 1. The RSI 14 is not displaying any sign of divergence and oversold scenario. On the flip side, after overstepping the EMA at 1.

Breach of the latter will drive the asset towards the round level resistance at 1. Export earnings surged 7. Meanwhile, according to the minutes of the March FOMC meeting, participants judged that it would be appropriate to move the stance of monetary policy towards a neutral posture expeditiously, reported Reuters. The FOMC finalized its plans to shrink bond holdings in an aggressive effort to curb rising prices.

Additionally, "many participants noted that one or more 50 basis point increases in the target range could be appropriate at future meetings, particularly if inflation pressures remained elevated or intensified," the minutes said. Board members decided to keep the official cash rate OCR steady at a record low of 0. This site is managed by Teletrade D. Vincent and the Grenadines.

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